It’s now 21 days before the November 5 General Election.
The two main parties – the ruling National Democratic Congress (NDC) under the leadership of Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell and the New National Party (NNP), now headed by Emmalin Pierre – will be looking at its best chances of getting the required eight seats to form the new government.
The other main party involved in the race is the Democratic People’s Movement (DPM) of former NNP and NDC Executive member Peter David.
At this stage, THE NEW TODAY is seeing a much clearer path to victory for Congress than the NNP which has been the dominant party in electoral politics in the country for the past 40 years.
The NNP is under new leadership with the departure of former Prime Minister Keith Mitchell not to contest his St George North-west seat which he has held in Parliament since 1984.
The party has been affected in recent years by a split in its rank as several members including David have departed to form DPM.
David has left with a number of key prominent persons who campaigned for NNP over the years – Dr. Bert Brathwaite, Dr. Anthony Bridgeman, Arley Gill, Archie Bain, Chester Humphrey and Pastor Stanford Simon among others.
Another major loss for NNP came a few months after the 2022 general election when the elected Member of Parliament for the rural St Andrew North-west Constituency Delma Thomas defected to Congress and now holds the position of Minister of Mental Health and Sports.
And two weeks ago, former NNP Finance Minister Anthony Boatswain appeared on the NDC platform at the Bus Terminal in Sauteurs to publicly endorse NDC’s Foreign Affairs Minister Joseph Andall who is defending his St Patrick West seat against NNP’s Jelani Glean.
Ex-Prime Minister Keith Mitchell understands the fracture within his party when he told supporters some months ago that a vote for DPM on Polling Day is a vote for NDC.
The DPM might not win any seats in the election but has the potential to take away some NNP votes in a few key and strategic rural constituencies like St Patrick East, St Patrick West, St Andrew North-east, and St Andrew South-east.
The DPM’s best chances at the poll rests in the hands of its leader Peter David who is defending the Town of St George Constituency which he won in 2003 and 2008 as a member of NDC and in 2018 and 2022 with NNP.
There is a feeling that David along with NDC’s Claudette Joseph are the main contenders in this election cycle for the seat in the City and not NNP’s Troy Noel, a newcomer to the political landscape and one who has remained unknown and has failed to captivate the electorate.
Regional Pollster Peter Wickham of Barbados has already declared that Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell is in Pole position going into the November 5 election given the split in the ranks of the NNP since the last general election.
For the first time, the NDC is facing the electorate not dogged by bitter political infighting like in 1995 and 2008, equipped with a Political Leader and Prime Minister who is very popular at the moment and considered to be better suited to sit in the important chair on the Sixth Floor of the Ministerial Complex at the Botanical Gardens than his opponent Emmalin Pierre who is not seen as a national political figure.
THE NEW TODAY believes that the NNP should pay close attention to Sunday’s National rally by Congress at the Car Park of the Stadium at Queen’s Park.
It is generally agreed that crowds do not determine the final overcome of an election but the NDC is hoping to use the rally to gain a decisive momentum to head into the NNP heartland of St Andrew for what is being billed as “The Mother of All Rallies” on October 26 at Pearl’s airstrip.
If Congress wins two of the 4 seats in St Andrew then it can spell Doomsday for NNP and its chances of getting 8 seats on Election Day to form the new government in the tri-island State.
The NNP is starting off the campaign with a major disadvantage as it has literally surrendered 4 of the 5 seats in the Parish of St George to its opponents and is competitive only in St George North-west of its former leader.
The task ahead for the NNP is to win 7 of the remaining 10 seats at stake on Election Day including that of Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell in St David.
One day can turn out to be a very long 24-hours in politics and many things can go wrong for an incumbent in office but the NNP will have to sweep the entire Western flank of the island and also St Andrew to be in the electoral race.
And it has to do that with a team of candidates considered to be among the weakest ever on the NNP ticket since the formation of the party in 1984 on Union Island in the Grenadines with the full backing of the U.S government of then President Ronald Reagan.
The NNP is also affected by widespread reports of sizable defection of its supporters to Congress in several constituencies in the past month.
The under-prepared Emmalin Pierre does not seem to have the political skills to stop the bleeding that is taking place almost daily in the party and that only serves to strengthen the hands of Prime Minister Dickon Mitchell and Congress on Polling Day.
The NNP has a lot of work to do in the remaining three weeks of the campaign to rescue its ship in order to avoid another 5 years in the political wilderness in the country.