At the initial stage of any epidemic, the rate of infection is usually low. Once more and more persons get infected and expose others to the virus the rate of infection will rapidly increase. This will continue until there is a peak in the level of infections.
At this stage which is considered the apex of the curve, infected persons will encounter less people that could be infected since most persons have already contracted the virus and have built up resistance.
As the number of persons who could be infected decline the number of new infections in the population will also fall. Therefore, persons who were lucky enough not to have been infected during the rapid increase in infections are relatively safer as less persons in the population can infect them. This is what is considered herd immunity.
In the case of Grenada, we have seen relatively low imported and imported related cases, however we may very well be at the early stage of an epidemic community spread as more and more confirmed cases that are not related to an imported case emerge.
Unfortunately, this is occurring when restrictions are being relaxed. There is clear evidence of an increase in infections when countries relaxed restrictions.
The countries of Singapore, Hong Kong and South Korea are cases in point.
The recent removal of some business activity from the restricted list can lead to a dangerous intersection of community spread and relaxation of restrictions on the island which could be devastating to say the least.
In any epidemic situation there is always the challenge to find the right balance between public health concerns and economic activity. The Government and private business will need revenue to pay workers and provide services.
However finding the right balance requires careful thought and consideration which doesn’t appear to be the case with the recent decisions on relaxation. For instance some of the food vendors lack space in which to implement the 6ft social distancing, the same can be said for bakeries as well.
The sale of alcohol and clustering of persons in some food and beverage outlets suggest that our citizens need to be more disciplined and conscious of the effects of their actions on others.
Consideration should also be given to having cargo taken off the port on the same days that food distribution firms are allowed to replenish small shops and supermarkets to reduce the level of traffic congestion experienced last Friday.
The authorities need to engage a wide array of stakeholders before these decisions are taken in the future.
Conscious Citizen