Political risk is a type of risk that can negatively affect the government due to ill-advised decisions or lack thereof, events, or conditions that may emerge. These risks, if not properly managed, can do irreparable damage to the government.
Analysis of results from the last elections indicates that the following constituencies – St. George’s North East, St. George’s South East, St. George’s South and St. David’s are excluded.
The winning margins for the other constituencies are marginal. Most of these constituencies are in that corridor that runs from St. Andrew’s to St. John’s. This suggests that the election victory was not as convincing as people would think.
It is for this said reason that the government would have to properly manage those risks for the remainder of its tenure to remain in power after the next general elections.
The toxic culture and state of disorganisation that exist in the public service is a clear and present danger to the government. This has created the conditions that have allowed gross inefficiencies in the functioning and provision of services across the public sector.
Sycophant public officers of the previous government are taking full advantage of the state of disorganisation to gain the confidence of naive ministers who lack initiative and drive to create disruption and delay in getting things done causing the government to lose face and confidence with certain segments of the electorate.
These sycophants, most of them hand-picked and promoted over experienced officers into positions for which they are not able to function properly and having now gained the confidence of naive ministers are giving advice on matters they know nothing of thereby creating confusion and further breakdown in the functioning of the system.
Some of them are willfully sitting on matters, causing inordinate delays in taking action to make the government look bad. Notwithstanding the situation, the government must take blame for the approach the transition team took in dealing with the public service after the general election and the thinking among ministers and senior advisors that you just have to monitor them closely and they will do their work.
This is a flawed thinking since all of those sycophants were promoted not on merit but loyalty, and some are news-mongers who used misinformation to discredit good officers to gain promotion.
The reality is that you have senior officers in positions that they can’t function properly because they do not know the established procedures and processes as a result are making up procedures that are outside what is established and thus creating confusion and giving the naive ministers bad advice and in the process creating unnecessary stumbling blocks and hurdles in the system.
A day in politics is a long time, and events can pop up out of nowhere to change the conversation or perception of the public.
The recent spike in crime and heinous acts of violence on the American couple by the three demented criminals have completely changed the positive feel-good vibes that came out of the spectacular 50th Independence celebrations.
The recent acts of violence have caused crime to become a top issue for the public and have erased most of the positive feelings for the independence celebration.
The public narrative has now completely changed, and perceptions that the government is not in control, are unable to arrest the crime situation, allowing too many NNP sycophants in the public service to frustrate, misguide and disrupt the efficient functioning of the system, incessant delays in implementation of projects, and that government doesn’t understand the plight of the poor and vulnerable and as such is not caring enough towards them.
These are powerful narratives that, if allowed to take hold, can derail the government’s efforts towards securing a second term.
Social and economic considerations can and do converge to create conditions that could negatively affect the government’s performance and the perception of certain segments within the society.
The projected tapering off of GDP growth in the medium term will be a challenge for the government to provide jobs, particularly for young people, and stimulate the economy going forward.
With large swaths of villages in that corridor from St. Andrew’s previously mentioned in an economic malaise with high unemployment and lack of opportunities for young people, there could be serious erosion of support for the government in those areas, which has the most marginal constituencies.
How the government responds to this situation would determine if it can hold on to the two seats in St. Patrick’s, one in St. Andrew’s and St. John’s.
According to Thomas ‘Tip’ O’Neil, “all politics are local,” and there are no real national elections or in Grenada’s case general elections but a number of local elections.
What occurs and the perception of constituents in those battleground constituencies in the corridor that would eventually determine the elections. Therefore, it is important that the government and ruling party respond to the needs of constituents in each constituency.
All parliamentary representatives and constituency caretakers should take a page from Hon. Andy Williams and the Prime Minister’s playbook. For in a situation where most of the constituencies are won or lost by very small margins, the incumbent government must never forget that all politics are local and must always bear that in mind when attempting to mitigate against political risks or else they would go down in heavy defeat.
In my next article, I would endeavour to go into more details on the political risks the government faces going forward into the second half of their tenure and how these risks if not dealt with properly can damage the government efforts to get a second term in office.
As I end, I wish to register my strong displeasure with the decision of the government to bend to pressure and allow the upcoming show over the weekend to go on at the athletics stadium where the Mondo track was recently relayed for the just concluded Carifta games.
It is sad because by doing so, the government has opened the flood gate, and it would be difficult to turn down another request to use the facility, particularly around the carnival season.
Special Correspondent