The Caribbean is experiencing unprecedented climate shifts in 2026, including prolonged droughts, rising sea levels, and a “Super El Niño” driving extreme heat waves and unpredictable rainfall. These extremes threaten regional ecosystems, agriculture, and key tourism infrastructure.
Although for decades, Caribbean daily life has been dictated by reliable patterns: a defined rainy season stretching from May to October, and refreshing trade winds to temper the tropical sun, these comforting patterns have begun to unravel in 2026.
From the southern tips of Trinidad to the waters off Jamaica, the Caribbean is facing a new climate reality characterised by extreme weather events and mounting environmental stress.
The dry season typically runs from December to May in the West Indies but this year has seen precipitation drop significantly below normal, straining aquifers, but many islands are still facing severe water stress and depleted reservoirs.
Scientists and meteorological agencies are observing the development of a strong El Niño pattern, which is driving up regional temperatures.
The Caribbean Climate Outlook Forum (CariCOF) issued warnings as early as April, highlighting the potential for significant, long-term heat stress and drought across islands like Grenada, St. Lucia, and Barbados.
Prolonged dry seasons are threatening freshwater reservoirs and regional agriculture. All CARICOM Member States rely primarily on either groundwater, surface water or rainwater (harvesting) or various combinations of all three for their potable, industrial, sewerage and agricultural water supply.
These sources of water are recharged during the wetter seasons of the year. The onset and duration of wet seasons vary spatially across CARICOM Member States.
The drought that these countries are presently exposed to point out severe deficiencies in the region’s ability to cope with drought. This was evident in several sectors including water, agriculture and energy. The net impact of the drought in some countries was an increase in the cost of living as evident by increases in food prices.
In Trinidad, reservoirs and rivers remain critically low, while St. Lucia’s water utility WASCO (Water and Sewerage Company Inc) reported up to a 50% decrease in network production at treatment plants.
Grenada is facing critical water shortages and an evolving drought emergency. Fresh water supplies have reached dangerously depleted levels across mainland Grenada, Carriacou, and Petite Martinique.
The National Water and Sewerage Authority (NAWASA) in Grenada has reported that multiple facilities are experiencing a 60 % decline in stream output due to prolonged dry weather.
In St. Vincent & the Grenadines, the Dalaway and Montreal water catchments are rapidly drying up, prompting the Central Water and Sewerage Authority (CWSA) to implement twice-daily water disruptions.
Trinidad is facing persistent dry taps even as the wet season begins. Prolonged dry season conditions severely reduced production at major treatment plants like North Oropouche and Quare, leaving communities with dry water storage and widespread service disruptions.
Antigua and St. Kitts are experiencing a severe, long-term drought with below-normal rainfall as they wrap up the 2025–2026 dry season. A Drought Warning remains in effect for most of Antigua, with eastern and southern areas also facing short-term drought watches due to heightened water stress and declining soil moisture.
In Dominica reduced rainfall leads to lower levels in rivers and streams, prompting local authorities to advise residents and farmers in dry areas (particularly along the western coast) to conserve water.
Increasingly extreme rainfall patterns are worsening humanitarian conditions across the region, with communities facing cycles of devastating floods and prolonged drought.
In 2025, flooding affected more than 110,000 people in Peru and Ecuador, while floods in Mexico killed 83 people and caused widespread infrastructure damage and landslides.
At the same time, severe drought affected up to 85 per cent of Mexico, creating major water shortages for crops and reservoirs despite the country experiencing its wettest June on record.
Water shortages were also reported across the Caribbean, while drought conditions in southern South America increased agricultural losses and wildfire risks.
The World Meteorological Organisation (WMO) warned that worsening climate extremes are placing growing pressure on agricultural production and food processing (agro-food) systems, threatening livelihoods, food access and rural communities across the region.
Although the President of the USA, Donald Trump views climate change policies as an expensive economic burden, consistently referring to global warming science as a “hoax” or “con job” and argued that the country would be better off without the climate change regulations of the past, climate change is scientifically real and primarily driven by human activity, not a hoax.
Over 99% of peer-reviewed climate science literature agrees that the planet’s rapid warming is caused by human-made greenhouse gas.
In conclusion, one of the easiest steps we can take to help mitigate the impacts of drought is conserving water. If we use water wisely at all times, more water will be available to us and to plants and wildlife when a drought happens.
Communities and farmers must focus on proactive, localised water conservation and climate-smart agriculture. Key strategies should include rainwater harvesting, adopting high-efficiency drip irrigation, utilising treated wastewater, and planting drought-resistant crops.
Simeon Collins is a former Director of the Grenada Bureau of Standards and first Chief Executive Officer (CEO) of the Caribbean Agricultural Health and Food Safety Agency (CAHFSA), a CARICOM Institution